tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post1482291433326670203..comments2024-02-29T10:20:31.352+01:00Comments on Uppsalainitiativet: Lennart Bengtsson and his media gambit on climate changeErikShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04698899229265554348noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-48866504823380406562014-12-25T15:13:24.894+01:002014-12-25T15:13:24.894+01:00Jag håller med Magnus 12:29 nedan: "Why?"...Jag håller med Magnus 12:29 nedan: <i>"Why?"</i> Det du föreslår, cdi brt, är en tämligen meningslös excercis, då vetenskapliga frågor inte avgörs genom akademisk k*kmätning eller "min pappa är starkare än din"-tjafsande. Lennart Bengtssons klimatvetenskapliga meriter är utmärkta (dock inte enastående), men goda vetenskapliga meriter är ingen garanti mot att tappa omdömet, och Bengtsson är nog varken den förste eller siste framstående forskare som drabbas av det. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Josephson" rel="nofollow">Till och med Nobelpristagare</a> har drabbats. Olle Häggströmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07965864908005378943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-52450287414307339592014-12-25T13:25:35.524+01:002014-12-25T13:25:35.524+01:00cdi brt, pleaee have a look at these lists compile...<a href="http://www.eecg.utoronto.ca/~prall/climate/" rel="nofollow">cdi brt, pleaee have a look at these lists compiles by James W Prall in 2010.</a>. For comparison, Bengtsson's most cited paper has 617 citations according to Google scholar. That is good, but not among the very best.Lars Karlssonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06158469980966810882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-92140986583036661902014-12-25T12:29:44.098+01:002014-12-25T12:29:44.098+01:00Why?Why?Magnushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01617272924116099306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-74340620329734575242014-12-25T07:34:04.142+01:002014-12-25T07:34:04.142+01:00Please Magnus Westerstrand or someone else from th...Please Magnus Westerstrand or someone else from this blog, name someone that you consider to be an "expert" in climatology so that we can compare their resumes to Bengtssons.cdi brthttp://goo.gl/Df5UH6noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-39143770562363540802014-06-02T20:08:29.667+02:002014-06-02T20:08:29.667+02:00You miss the important part "Bengtsson needs ...You miss the important part "Bengtsson needs to learn the basics in proxy calibration" Which is the point.... <br /><br />As mentioned a study to reproduce "modern" times has been done... and the proxies is chosen to reflect global climate... basic stuff Bengtsson seams to not know (or which is just as bad, omit). Still he criticizes one of the leading experts in the field. If Bengtsson was serious he could for example point out what is wrong with Manns method http://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2008/09/02/0805721105.DCSupplemental/0805721105SI.pdf#nameddest=STXTMagnushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01617272924116099306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-26744987553057871872014-06-02T14:46:37.692+02:002014-06-02T14:46:37.692+02:00"Individual model simulations have calculated..."Individual model simulations have calculated a global warming by 2100 of 6°C or even more, but those have been judged as very improbable by the IPCC (2007). The slow global warming, especially during the last 15 years, reinforces this view.<br /><br />after facing opposition about the statement by among others Christian Azar and Markku Rummukainen to the answer above..."<br /><br />Magnus was advising Bengtsson not to lecture experts in the field. Seems to me exactly what Magnus is doing to Bengtsson?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-17882075599678266372014-06-02T12:30:03.518+02:002014-06-02T12:30:03.518+02:00The field here would be paleoclimatology. As far a...The field here would be paleoclimatology. As far as I know, none of the people you mention is an expert in that field.Lars Karlssonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06158469980966810882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-70440524596813538772014-06-02T12:21:42.092+02:002014-06-02T12:21:42.092+02:00"Bengtsson needs to learn the basics in proxy..."Bengtsson needs to learn the basics in proxy calibration before he lectures the experts in the field."<br /><br />Perfect! Please Magnus Westerstrand or someone else from this blog, name someone that you consider to be an "expert" in climatology so that we can compare their resumes to Bengtssons. It would also help if you described why you value some individuals opinions high (Azar and Rummukainen) while disregarding others (Hans von Storch that commented on the other post). Which ones are to be trusted when it comes to evaluations in this specific scientific field? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-3601815398799039122014-05-30T18:23:02.764+02:002014-05-30T18:23:02.764+02:00In particular, the models cannot predict e.g. when...In particular, the models cannot predict e.g. <i>when</i> an El Nino or a La Nina will occur, or how strong it will be.<br /><br />If one enters the <i>observed</i> El Nino/La Nina patterns into a model (<a href="http://uppsalainitiativet.blogspot.se/2013/09/el-nino-la-nina-och-uppvarmningspausen.html" rel="nofollow">as Kosaka and Xie did</a>), global surface temperatures are reproduced with higher accuracy.<br />Lars Karlssonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06158469980966810882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-53693982338027256092014-05-30T16:55:15.404+02:002014-05-30T16:55:15.404+02:00Jan, you misunderstand. Models do not capture all ...Jan, you misunderstand. Models do not capture all natural variability. That lead to that during times they will be over the mean and during some time under it. So this might help you to understand why natural variability solve your problem: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/12/the-global-temperature-jigsaw/Magnushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01617272924116099306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-71541289734995457772014-05-30T09:54:57.993+02:002014-05-30T09:54:57.993+02:00That was not my point at all. Most models "tr...That was not my point at all. Most models "try" to take natural variability into account but evidently they fail miserably if the "hiatus" is due to natural variability.. Stocker thinks focusing on the "hiatus" is in line with "denier"-thinking according to the interview.. APS is doing a serious review on AR5 including the "hiatus". The main question neither You or Stocker answer is this: "If non-anthropogenic influences are strong enough to counteract the expected effects of increased CO2, why wouldn’t they be strong enough to sometimes enhance warming trends, and in so doing lead to an over-estimate of CO2 influence?" (from APS). To spell it out for you: that would imply that the fast rise in global temperatures before 1997 could have a larger component of natural variability than previously thought. Meaning that the implications for an imminent climate disaster are less. /JPC LindstromDysterkvist nr 2https://www.blogger.com/profile/14242998903871902230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-28356516045916600812014-05-30T07:00:20.424+02:002014-05-30T07:00:20.424+02:00You should read the links in the post. There are p...You should read the links in the post. There are papers that try to take this in to account, of course they look at both variability that slows and enhance the global temperature. As you can see if you actually would have read the links in the post there are also other ways that could give higher climate sensitivity then natural variability. Magnushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01617272924116099306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-51319236063209553182014-05-30T00:44:18.270+02:002014-05-30T00:44:18.270+02:00"He said natural variability could explain th..."He said natural variability could explain the current “hiatus”. Thus, IPCC scientists were looking at a longer “climatological period”.<br /><br />From APS: http://www.aps.org/policy/statements/upload/climate-review-framing.pdf<br /><br />"This IPCC text lists internal variability, forcing inadequacies, and model over-responsiveness as all possibly contributing to the stasis, but without a quantitative resolution. To what would you attribute the stasis? <br />• If non-anthropogenic influences are strong enough to counteract the expected effects of <br />increased CO2, why wouldn’t they be strong enough to sometimes enhance warming trends, and in so doing lead to an over-estimate of CO2 influence? <br />• What are the implications of this stasis for confidence in the models and their projections? "<br /><br />Well according to Stocker then, APS surely must be one of those "denier" organisations pushing the "wrong" questions, trying to divert the attention, no? Drop the subject, you are painting yourself in a corner.<br />/JPC Lindstrom<br />A.Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15804763711314476846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-54418997257561567852014-05-29T22:12:49.036+02:002014-05-29T22:12:49.036+02:00Here is a taste of what goes on at the Swedish ...<a href="http://www.klimatupplysningen.se/2014/05/27/23-klimatmodeller-kan-inte-ha-fel-eller-kan-de/#comment-373819" rel="nofollow">Here is a taste</a> of what goes on at the Swedish 'skeptic' blog which Bengtsson likes to frequent.<br /><br />This is a comment made by a Swedish professor in Philosophy of Science, and one of the writers of the blog. The subject is a distinguished Swiss climate scientist.<br /><br />"Karln är uppenbarligen galen och lider svårt av paranoia, liksom übermobbaren Michael Mann."<br /><br />Translation: "The man is obviously insane and suffers severely from paranoia, like the über bully Michael Mann."<br /><br />There is more of the same stuff.Lars Karlssonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06158469980966810882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-51091467832203162752014-05-29T13:51:12.527+02:002014-05-29T13:51:12.527+02:00The study using paleo data to reconstruct the rece...The study using paleo data to reconstruct the recent instrumental period already exists:<br /><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054271/abstract" rel="nofollow">Global warming in an independent record of the past 130 years</a>. <br /><br />The above is a sad story and in case of Bengtsson you cannot explain it away with stupidity. Very very sad.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270678875133158501.post-78659711037056663752014-05-29T08:15:06.880+02:002014-05-29T08:15:06.880+02:00And some other important news today:
IPCC co-chai...And some other important news today: <br />IPCC co-chairman says scientists being intimidated by climate change deniers<br /><br />Speaking to The Irish Times prior to giving a public lecture in Dublin, he said claims that there had been no global warming for 15 years were “quite a clever way to divert the attention of policymakers from the broader perspective of climate change”.<br /><br />http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/ipcc-co-chairman-says-scientists-being-intimidated-by-climate-change-deniers-1.1812984Magnushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01617272924116099306noreply@blogger.com