Trollkarlen Radagast den brune ger en översikt av klimatet i Midgård i sin kommande artikel "The Climate of Middle Earth". Resultaten bygger på klimatmodellen HadCM3L.
In this paper, I present and discuss results from a climate model simulation of the ‘Middle Earth’ of elves, dwarves, and hobbits (and not forgetting wizards such as my self). These are put into context by also presenting simulations of the climate of the ‘Modern Earth’ of humans, and of the ‘Dinosaur Earth’, when dinosaurs ruled the Earth 65 million years ago.
Several aspects of the Middle Earth simulation are discussed, including the importance of prevailing wind direction for elvish sailing boats, the effect of heat and drought on the vegetation of Mordor, and the rain-shadow effects of the Misty Mountains. I also identify those places in the Modern Earth which have the most similar climate to the regions of The Shire and Mordor.
Några viktiga slutsatser av simuleringen:
– Mordor had an inhospitable climate, even ignoring the effects of Sauron - hot and dry with little vegetation.
– Ships sailing for the Undying Lands in the West set off from the Grey Havens due to the prevailing winds in that region.
– Much of Middle Earth would have been covered in dense forest if the landscape had not been altered by dragons, orcs, wizards etc.
– Lincolnshire or Leicestershire in the UK, or near Dunedin in the South Island of New Zealand, have an annual-average climate very similar to that of The Shire.
– Los Angeles and western Texas in the USA, and Alice Springs in Australia, have an annual-average climate very similar to that of Mordor.
Radagast noterar även att "given the undoubted variations in CO2 due to the nefarious activities of Sauron and Saruman, evaluating the climate sensitivity of Middle Earth would be an interesting exercise" men tyvärr är situationen i Midgårds klimatpanel beklämmande: "the Interkingdom Panel on Climate Change in Middle Earth was recently disbanded after a fight broke out in the final plenary session and several Coordinating Lead Authors were sadly beheaded".